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eccles
 
 
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Post by eccles »

No 10 has had some overdue modifications..
no 10 modifications.jpg
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Post by OurCreature »

:lol Eccs.

I see that today Ms Truss has promised that when the state pension is uprated next April it will be according to the triple lock ie 10.1%. I suspect that promise won't last any longer than her premiership as Mr Hunt refused to confirm a few days ago that state pensions would be uprated by the triple lock principles.

I'll believe that increase when it's paid to me in April!
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Post by Furby »

I have a leaflet today from the labour party. It's gone out of date since it was printed because it has a picture of Liz truss and kwasi kartang and says enough is enough reverse budget now

What labour will do is nationalise an energy company to generate green energy which they say will be cheaper, Spend more on NHS to train more doctors and nurses , and free breakfast clubs in primary schools. They will pay for it all by taxing non doms.
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Post by eccles »

They will pay for it all by taxing non doms.
In other words the Magic Money Tree.
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Post by eccles »

Someone else who believes in the Magic Money Tree.
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Post by Furby »

After all the talk of mistakes by the old cabinet that the new cabinet are fixing they are now reversing the decision to move the budget from November to Halloween back to November after all. I don't know how the delay helps if we have no money we have no money some more won't appear in just a month will it.

It's going to be worse than anyone thought isn't it. Trussononics was the tipping point and did make things worse but even if they reverse everything (and not all is possible because it's been done in law) back to before Liz truss took over they had no money then either having spent it all on covid and any other problem that got as far as Boris desk for last 2 years. Still they have trussononics to blame now so people forget furlough and wars cost a lot of money.
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Post by Furby »

The new pm isnt committing to triple lock (as oc guessed) but will protect the most vulnerable whoever they are. This is the same as the energy bills help in April they haven't defined who the most vulnerable are who will continue to get help. State pensioners whose only income is the pension should be because it's only half the minimum wage even with 10%. If people have private pensions as well then if state pension goes up their tax code goes down so they pay more tax.
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Post by Furby »

The financial crisis plan must be sorted ready for 17 November because the prime minister is going to the cop out meeting in Egypt after all having previously said he can't spare the time too busy planning very important financial crisis repair plans. The climate minister is going as is Boris who was originally planned to go when he was still pm so then current pm doesn't really need to go but maybe he wants to be there to point out when Boris is talking rubbish and we won't be building 40 new cardboard bridges or whatever Boris dreams up.

No leaks yet about details in the budget other than describing tax rises as rough and maybe the personal allowances will be frozen forever. Usually by two weeks before most of it has been in the papers so this is a good start that they employ slightly less leaking staff but there's time yet I suppose.
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Post by Furby »

The 40 billion black hole is now 60 billion up from 50 billion last time they counted it so should have just got on with things on Halloween before it went worse. Probably be 70 billion by time of the budget.
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Post by OurCreature »

I'm getting fed up with this 'black hole' that people go on about; calculating its size is imprecise and dependent on lots of factors outside the control of HMG. One example is the projection of gas wholesale prices - if this figure drops significantly so will the size of the 'black hole'.

I think the key figure is the size of the National Debt compared with the size of National GDP. On that basis the UK wasn't doing ultra horrendously in 2021. Here are some figures, the % being National Debt as a proportion of GDP. I don't know whether measures of the size of the national debt are consistent worldwide - for example do you include estimates of off-balance sheet liabilities so far as government accounts are concerned.

262.5 Japan
159.9 Singapore
150.9 Italy
128.1 USA
112.9 Canada
112.6 France
108.4 Belgium
95.3 UK
69.6 Germany
42.1 Switzerland

The Nordic countries are OK as a group. Iceland (74.4) and Finland (66.2) are the most profligate, then Norway (43.4), Sweden (36.8) and Denmark (36.6).

The latest figure I have seen for the UK is 103.7 so our trend is in the wrong direction. It isn't something that will be corrected by a single budget or years of austerity - we've had that for the vast majority of our people since 2008 and that proportion has been increasing for most of the time since then; in July 2007 it was 35.5.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ublic_debt
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Post by Furby »

Isn't Singapore supposed to be what some UK aspire to. Singapore on thames etc yet it's second worst in the world?

Kwasi has said the mess wasn't his fault it was all Liz trusses fault.
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Post by OurCreature »

Furby, there are a few countries inbetween Singapore and Japan - I listed only a few countries overall and I should have made that clear. I was interested in countries a bit like the UK. I included Singapore for precisely the reason you suggest!

FWIW the countries between Japan and Singapore are Venezuela, Greece, Sudan and Eritrea in that order.

I saw Kamikwasi's self-justification - I tried to hold Liz back but she wouldn't listen - which I found difficult to believe; IIRC one of his comments shortly after his 'fiscal event' was poorly received was that so far as tax cuts were concerned we hadn't seen anything yet compared with what he intended to do later on.
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Post by Furby »

I am worried the numbers are so big because isnt anything approaching 100 and certainly beyond basket case economy territory. How will you hope to pay the debt back and live as well if it's all your income that's impossible without massive spending cuts. Which this current uk lot have also said isn't happening but as we have seen what they say means nothing. Can't believe anything until it happens.

A great deal of government spending is legally forced to be spent whatever the cost which is where local councils have been for a long time they spend nearly all the income on compulsory education and social care now and theres nothing left for libraries etc. All ours got closed because legally we only need a library 90 minutes travel so the rest got shut. The real problems occur when all you are left with is things legally required to be provided so can't be cut anymore.
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Post by eccles »

I think the BBC is being alarmist and in some respects just plain wrong. It is picking the measures that show the UK in its worst light because UK figures are a month or so ahead of the EU. France and Italy have debt to GDP ratios worse than the UK and among EU countries that of the UK is about average. Germany has been teetering on the edge of recession for months and is expected to run into negative territory in the current quarter and through the whole of 2023. When its stockpile of Russian gas runs out it'll be in real trouble because its manufacturing base is underpinned by cheap Russian energy. Furthermore the ECB is still kicking the can down the road, continuing to pump huge amounts of artificial liquidity into the Euro area.

Yes, the UK finances are in trouble but the BBC is wrong in saying that it is the worst performer.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 022-10-25/

https://www.globaldata.com/media/busine ... lobaldata/

I would put money on figures for Q3 being revised upwards that show the UK to have just escaped recession. It'll be a footnote in the BBC's business section so you'll have to look carefully for it.

As for Krazy Karting, his weaselly attempts at passing the buck will fool no one and will reflect badly on him. I don't envisage him returning to government any time soon.
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Post by Furby »

Its obvious that economies that use much energy will contract when energy prices go up so much. Even people who can afford it are paying double for the same energy so all that money isn't going on other less essential things. People who can't afford it are cutting back on other essentials too so even less money spent on other things.

The BBC hates the UK in most areas so no reason this would be any different. I would cut all their funding except a small amount of news which would have to be UK news and public broadcasts like covid press conferences. The 24 hour BBC news channel is now increasingly world news well let the world pay for that and just UK news on uk license fee. The entertainment programs are all better catered for by other channels now anyway.
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Post by Furby »

The chancellor (Jeremy hunt as at December 2022) is to announce plans to remove all the EU regulations brought in after the last financial crash. This is to get uk growth.

This doesn't seem very sensible to me because they weren't all silly rules thought up by the EU but a reaction to the financial crash to prevent further crashes. Had we not been in the EU we would have needed them anyway but as we were in EU at the time had their ones.

The rule that banks should ring fence customer retail and investment gambling arms is the most worrying to me. That was so that if a bank should fail in future it could be allowed to fail without having to be bailed out entirely. Banks had to be bailed out because they aren't like other businesses that can be allowed to fail their money is peoples money so it was all the people being bailed out too not just the banks. If ring fenced the government could bail out the people's accounts money without paying for the gambling side of things.
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Post by eccles »

I think many of the EU financial rules might have been made under the guise of safety but in reality they aimed at curtailing the City of London's financial dominance. It is well known that the EU Commission would like nothing better than to see the centre of European banking to be Amsterdam, Frankfurt or Paris instead of London. They expected this to change when the UK left and have been dragging their feet over granting EU equivalence to London in that hope, At the very least if it couldn't compete with London then it wanted to control it. The UK had avoided making any rule changes while the hope was that the EU would eventually change its mind, but I think the writing was on the wall when it granted equivalence to New York instead. This was despite the UK being much more closely aligned and was a slap in the face to the UK. Something had to give, and Jeremy Hunt's move means that London will move on. Temporary equivalence has been partially given until now because EU businesses demanded it, and those EU businesses will no doubt end up regretting the Commissions intransigence.

Incidentally, I noticed that the BBC article mentions that Paris temporarily became the larger financial centre before exchange rates changed it back again. This is rubbish. In sheer volume of total business, London is far bigger.

Having said all that, I share your unease about losing the ring-fencing. I think protection for retail customers is vital and I hope that Mr Hunt will bear that in mind with his new rules.
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Post by Wildrover »

And I agree with both of you. I think the BBC was saying the total value of the French stock market was temporarily greater than the UK's in October but the pound is 14% stronger against the Euro since then and even so that's a far cry from saying Paris is the bigger financial centre. However Paris and Amsterdam are both growing as financial centres and are closing the gap on London due mainly to Brexit and that's what Hunt is trying to address.
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Post by Furby »

One news story had said Amsterdam had overtaken London for something.

If customers are moving to Paris Frankfurt and Amsterdam because of brexit though how will London relaxing rules to be even less eu-ey help. Won't they move there even more.

Wonder what will happen to the 85k protection. While we were in the EU it moved from 75 and changed a few times I think because the limit is ruled in Euros and exchange rates moved a lot. My banks who are otherwise unwilling to do any tradional banking business including sending me statements still find the time and energy to post me blurbs about the 85k all the time even on a 275 pound account so I was getting a bit worried another crash was on its way otherwise why keep telling me.

It's small fry and it does seem jeremy is interesting in and looking for the big fishes so I suppose won't be any changes to this but post 2008 made a complete mess of customers banking. It used to be they had to send a statement every year (which seems the least you should expect really) but the new laws said they didn't have to so they don't. And they had to tell you when rates changed but now they don't. Only Sainsbury's bank bothered with me this time so thanks to them but pity it's the only account I can't use as there are no branches near me.

Interest rates are likely up again next week so we are approaching normality and anything else we can't cope with etc. It's been so long now are there any staff left who understand what interest rates mean I wonder. My guess would be no. It means you need customers again thats what it means so this shooing away anyone who walks in the banks doors isnt very helpful.
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Post by eccles »

Your recent treatment in a bank branch is dreadful. You should be able to do anything in person that you can do online otherwise what are they there for? But perhaps that's the aim, to kill high street banks completely.
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