Indy Ref 2

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Patience
 
 
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Post by Patience »

Supreme Court judges have rejected the Scottish government's argument that it can hold a second independence referendum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-63701835

Oh dear. What a pity. Never mind.
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OurCreature
 
 
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Post by OurCreature »

During the last few years most polls in Scotland have shown a narrow majority in favour of remaining in the UK. There was a temporary bump of support for independence between March 2020 and May 2021 when Wee Nippy was on TV a lot and sounding sensible about Covid but the polls rarely exceeded 55% support for independence.

What it does show is that the Scottish electorate are more or less split down the middle about independence, which isn't a very good place to be. Meanwhile a recent YouGov poll suggests that 56% of the UK electorate think it was wrong to leave the EU while 32% think it was right. There are a lot of don't know/won't say folk as well - 22%.

When deciding these things people should be careful what they wish for. And politicians shouldn't take our votes for granted. The Great King Darius of Persia (successor to Cyrus the Great) understood the need for unremitting effort and toil to keep things the way he wanted them to be, which is a lesson that modern politicians should learn if they want their electorates to continue to really believe in policies they regard as fundamental to the prosperity of their nations.
Like the late Chaircat Midge, I am not always right.
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eccles
 
 
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Post by eccles »

The negative Brexit vote is highly influenced by people blaming it for other ills. Perhaps people should read this:
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/w ... k-economy/

I imagine something similar happens with Scottish independence. I also wonder what a vote for Scottish independence would be in England.
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OurCreature
 
 
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Post by OurCreature »

Thank you for that link, Eccs. I doubt if very many of the folk who constitute Joe Public will read it, because it is very long and very technical. I've skimmed through only half of the paper but I have bookmarked it for future reading. I was pleased to see that they name their references as they go along, and that their sources are reputable.

They seem to be heading to the same conclusion that I did before the Brexit referendum ie that we will only know whether it has been good or bad for the UK economy in 15 or 20 years time; by which time I might well be dead so I won't know either way. In fact their paper is oddly reminiscent of an article written by Larry Elliott in the Grauniad which basically said that the huge disasters predicted by the Remainers simply haven't happened, and IIRC went on to say that only time will tell who turns out to be correct.
Like the late Chaircat Midge, I am not always right.
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eccles
 
 
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Post by eccles »

It is my belief that any detrimental effects of Brexit would have happened in the short-term, and nearly two years on, they haven't happened to any significant degree. The war in Ukraine and the pandemic have dwarfed them in any case. With the umbilical cord effectively severed the UK will gradually drift away from the EU's influence with a parallel path of its own. To create doppelganger scenarios of what might have happened will be impossible. This has not stopped media sources from trying though. One such claim has the UK having lost 5.7% of its GDP since leaving the EU. Given the UK's OECD predicted increase of 4.4% for 2022 that means the UK would have enjoyed a 2022 growth of over 10% had it not left which is ludicrous.

Regarding Indyref2, Sturgeon's repeated cries for another referendum citing a desire for democracy are anything but democracy. Where there is no strong case for independence with polls meandering around a 50/50 mean, repeating referendums every few years may well eventually get a yes result. This would be luck rather than democracy. Should Scotland take such an irreversible step on what would be little more than the throw of a die?
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Post by Wildrover »

I agree OC - one sentence in the conclusion of the document that Eccs proided the link for says it all for me - “A careful reading of the evidence shows that while there is little evidence yet that Brexit is doing much to help the UK economy, neither is there evidence of much harm.” - although the authors admit to being pro-Brexit so they have probably picked their data to suit their viewpoint in the same way that the Remainers have picked their data to suit their narrative. That said I think their conclusion is pretty much in line with what we all felt at the time - there were pros and cons either way but it likely wouldn't make much difference in the short and medium term. Given the pandemic and assoociated lockdowns and the Ukraine war I don't see how it's possible to ascribe any change in the econnomy to a particular cause other than to say the hike in energy pricees is definitely mainly due to the Ukraine war.
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Post by Furby »

Any change that's made to anything anywhere has winners and losers at individual level which is a problem for all these major changes like brexit and indy and even local changes to political governements. It's always going to be difficult to persuade people to be worse off just because "the economy" is overall better off.




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