Rishi Sunak priorities

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Rishi Sunak priorities

Post by Furby »

Over on the old forum we had a list of Theresa Mays priorities and she kept adding new ones while not achieving old ones but we did notice.

I have checked back and all these years later they are all still unsolved priorities really.
They were
1. Brexit means brexit
2. The just about managings (people not on benefits but still poor)
3. Housing (after Grenfell but also in general)
4. Stamp out harassment
5. universities are too dear
6. Social care costs
7. Gender pay gap
8. Syria
9. Windrush unintended Id consequences and Id requirements for everyone else without one.
10. Plastic
11. Trains
12. Shops shutting down
13. NHS
And never stated by her but noticed here on hard facts - to stay in power

Rishi Sunak has a shorter list so far (my comments in brackets)
1. Halve inflation (this means prices will only go up 6% still more than most wages are rising and private pensions are fixed at 3 or 5 so it's not really that good a target and bank of England has 2% target anyway is this being increased because half inflation is a year of bank apology letters needed)
2. Grow the economy (how we do this when many don't have enough for essentials and even the better off are using up savings)
3. Reduce debt (assumes we have no more crisis to subsidise going forward having spent up on covid and wars and energy)
4. Cut hospital waiting lists ( unless we can reduce numbers admitted as emergencies can this even start happening. Unless the plan is people die from untreated emergency so are crossed off lists)
5. Stop migrant boats (its always tough to deal with people already outlaws by making new laws because they just don't obey the new laws either and the law and most lawyers are on the side of outlaws in general the boat people is just one example of that)
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Post by Patience »

Absolute nonsense from Sunak. I have no belief they will or are in any way competent to carry out these “aims”. Some, like inflation, are due to happen without any Government help. A bit like me saying that but this time next year I will be a year older. It will happen, unless….
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Post by OurCreature »

I'm inclined to agree with Furby and Patience. As was pointed out on the News/Press Preview on Sky News last night, most of what Dishy Rishy listed as things he will do per Furby will/should happen anyway like reduced inflation and I think the real test is how well is the UK doing compared with countries with similar economies. You won't be told that little fact in most of the newspapers unless things go horribly wrong with those countries. I haven't read his aims, just what Furby says they are and what I gleaned from Sky News last night but I'm sure that when you get to the detail he'll have left plenty of wriggle room in case things don't go according to his wish list.

At least Mr Sunak noticed that all is not well with the NHS - I understand that the other day he thought there wasn't a crisis there at all. The families of people who die while waiting for an ambulance might not agree with him. I must confess that when I saw he wanted to be judged on the reduction of NHS waiting lists I wondered whether it would be achieved by fiddling the statistics or simply hoping that loads of people waiting for treatment die off and reduce the lists that way.
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Post by eccles »

Although the UK is in a mess, it is by no means exceptional compared to others in Europe. This is what media sources such as the BBC omit, that the UK's economic performance is about average when compared to others, and for the last two years or so, was well above average. Most of our ills are due to past measures or those beyond our control. They are:

The huge deficit caused by shutting down the country in the mistaken belief that it would save lives and the NHS. Well, the NHS is in crisis and the UK's record with covid deaths is no better than others. When the restrictions were lifted the pent up demand as people cashed in on the government's generous measures such as the furlough schemes were inevitably responsible for an inflationary spike. But many other countries also shut their economies down. With the exception of Germany the larger EU nations have similar or greater per-capita national debt levels than the UK. Furthermore, at a time when spending should be reined in, the ECB is still pumping vast amounts into the Eurozone and is projected to continue this until well into next year. Italy and Germany are at odds with EU interest rates with a precarious balance held. German banks are teetering on the edge.

The Ukraine war and subsequent energy crisis. The government can do quite a bit here but there's no short term fix. If we want to cut Russia out of the energy supply business we will have to pay more until we can become more self sufficient in energy production and use. Once the extra costs fix into the system then inflation will go down without the government doing anything because inflation is only calculated on a year-by-year basis. As already suggested the aim to get inflation down to where it is likely to end up anyway isn't much of a target. The UK is well placed for imports of liquified natural gas, so much so that it is currently re-exporting some of it to the EU, but its storage capacity and hence its ability to weather short-term shocks is poor.

Brexit. There has been a small impact but I believe many commentators are conflating its real effect with other causes. The small businesses that have suffered from the extra paperwork have had little impact on the overall economy, and larger businesses have coped pretty well.

Where the government has fallen down is a laggardly response to Brexit opportunities. The legislation to revoke or revise EU rules is progressing through parliament now when this should have been started two years ago. EU food tariffs should have been thrown out at the same time. Abandoning EU laws on so-called grey imports is another no-brainer. We really don't need to be protecting the EU.
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Post by eccles »

The big thing on Sunak's plate now is the Northern Ireland Protocol. This has been festering since the UK finally severed its umbilical cord with the EU on January 1st 2021. But there is excitement in the air that the two sides are close to a solution that satisfies the EU, Ireland and the Province. There is a lot hanging on this. Accession to the CPTPP, a jewel in the Brexit crown, rests on this because any international trade disputes must be resolved to allow membership of the bloc.
The silly thing about the whole affair is that the aim of the DUP, who are holding out, is to avoid a visible border down the Irish Sea. If that can be achieved then one wonders why it couldn't be done with the land border and avoid the NIP altogether.
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Post by Furby »

At least he is recycling theresa may first priority rather than adding his own brand new priority to the list.

No 9 the Id requirements has been worked on and for the may elections everyone will need photo ID. There is a plan for councils to give free Id to people without it. Having thought ahead to what stingy furbies might do they have decided the free election Id can't be used for any other Id purpose so I will still have to shell out a hundred quid for a passport just so I can go to the bank. By time it expires probably be a thousand quid.
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Post by OurCreature »

Eccs introduced a very thoughtful post thus:-
Although the UK is in a mess, it is by no means exceptional compared to others in Europe. This is what media sources such as the BBC omit, that the UK's economic performance is about average when compared to others, and for the last two years or so, was well above average.
Here's a link to a recent article on the BBC website about how well the UK recently has fared economically compared with the USA and the Eurozone and what the short-term prospects are.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64661791

One point made therein is that between the end of 2019 and the end of 2022 overall the UK economy fared less well than these other 2 entities and by the end of 2022 was the only one to have a smaller economy than at the end of 2019. The UK grew faster during the last 2 years only because it had fallen further and therefore had more ground to make up. The article notes that the UK has a different method of measuring the contribution made by the public sector to GDP and that the UK might be doing relatively better than the figures used by the OECD suggest; but then goes on to say the bigger picture is clear, UK not doing as well as the others etc.

I think that commentators should do a bit more research to make sure that they are comparing like with like, and also compare past forecasts with what actually happened. Most such articles look only to the future and, as we know, forecasts of what probably will happen to national and global economies even over the next 12 months can be wildly inaccurate.
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Post by eccles »

When a smaller number of GP visits affects GDP there surely must be something wrong with the measurements. If we all get sick then our GDP goes up? :huh For instance if you remove the public sector activity from the figures then Germany could be said to be in a worse position than the UK.

And using Q4 2019 as a starting point is rather disingenuous as well. It was widely thought that the UK might drop out of the EU without a free trade deal and there was significant stockpiling in the run-up to 2020. By some measures it was thought that the UK recovered its pre-pandemic activity by November 2021.

What worries me more is the way the government is handling it. Although she went at it like a bull in a china shop, many observers now suggest that Liz Truss's economic approach was right. We have recently seen Astra Zeneca announce that it is opening new premises in Ireland because it is more economically favourable. Would they have done so had Rishi Sunak not decided to put corporation tax up from 19% to 25%?
Last edited by eccles on Sun Feb 19, 2023 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Furby »

The UK grew faster during the last 2 years only because it had fallen further and therefore had more ground to make up.
This is the secret to growth really. To have good growth you need a really horrible terrible year then the next year will be better.

Maybe the gp appointments is because after an appointment most people buy some prescription medicines or travel to a hospital and pay bus fares or car park so it's extra expenditure than they would otherwise have spent.
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Post by OurCreature »

Having studied the article, and especially the graph, in more detail I find that I was in error in simply accepting the description above the graph. The graph takes its index of 100 for the UK, US and Eurozone as being somewhere close to the beginning of the 4th quarter of 2019 ie towards the end of 2019 and not the absolute end of 2019; for clarification of where I stand on this, I think that 'end of 2019' should mean '@31 December 2019'. All those economies, according to the graph, began to contract before the end of 2019 with the UK and Eurozone being more or less in tandem (as they were for all of 2019) and the US doing better than everybody else for all of 2019 and, indeed, for all the period covered by the graph, which I reproduce below.
graph.jpg
The pandemic lockdown began in March in 2020 and, as Eccs rightly says and the graph supports, by November 2021 the UK economy had recovered to its pre-pandemic level and in fact was bigger than it had been at the very end of 2019. But it is smaller than it was when all 3 entities were indexed to 100 though future revisions to the figures might tell a different story; I haven't forgotten when HMG suddenly found £500 million of unrecorded exports in either the 1960s or 1970s!
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Post by Furby »

I wonder wbat the pre lockdown periods excuse was then. Brexit can't really be blamed if all the other countries went down too. Uk probably worse during lockdown because NHS is so very big an employer and business here so although they worked their socks off helping people like Boris stay alive almost all other work was cancelled.

People aren't happy with the new improved brexit deal surprise surprise. There isnt a possible solution is there. Has to be a border with the EU someehere unless iisland of Ireland is part of the UK or UK is part of Ireland and therefore EU and neither of those things are likely any time soon so I am glad I am not pm. Each prime minister tries their own version of where to put the border and upset least number of people from the PM's view but each time the various different interests kick off.
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Post by Furby »

Keir starmer isn't pm yet but he has done his list of 5 things anyway. His are called missions.

1. Growth. Also was rishi 2
2. NHS.. also was rishi 4 and Theresa 13
3. Safe streets
4. Barriers to opportunity
5. Clean energy.

He might be banning sticking plasters as a bonus.
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Post by eccles »

The Labour party likes the number 5 doesn't it. It was Labour who introduced the 5-a-day fruit and veg campaign. Then 5 was the number of conditions for joining the Euro by Gordon Brown. I think those were no, no, no, no, and no.

Talking of which, it was the introduction of the Lisbon Treaty, a rehashed version of the EU Constitution to get around the fact that Netherlands and France had voted no to the constitution, and also enabled Tony Blair to ignore a manifesto promise of referendum altogether, that gave a big kick-start to UKIP and the Brexit movement. So despite Tony Blair being an ardent Europhile, his party was partly responsible for Brexit, and by rejecting joining the Euro it made it much easier to achieve.

One of Tony Blair's proudest moments no doubt. :smug
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Post by Furby »

I don't have to bother with tiresome nonsense these days and cant remember details but its on some training course thing to have lists of 5 things for greatest efficient success and productivity or something.
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Post by Furby »

Brexit means brexit is still fighting on. Still stuck at the stage where half of Northern Ireland wants to be British and other half and the EU wants it to be Irish and there's not really a compromise to that. Where to put the border is still a problem.

I do wish governments would be honest and just say we are refusing to put up a minister on the news because he won't be able to answer any questions yet. It's brexit today but they do it on many things. The news are also to blame because why waste a news story that tells no news. Wait until there is news and do another story that can be told.
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Post by Panikos »

The Brexit/NI thing is crazy in that we keep seeking compromises.

Someone needs to say once and for all that we're a different country and no part of it is in the EU. Otherwise in a 1000 years we'll be looking to colonise other planets and having to ask the EU if that's ok. We split up, we moved out and it's OVER.
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Post by OurCreature »

Someone needs to say once and for all that we're a different country and no part of it is in the EU.
What a shame nobody reminded Mr Johnson about how it could be interpreted when he agreed to Northern Ireland remaining in the Single Market so far as trade in goods and a few other things are concerned. Though countries can be in the Single Market and not be in the EU like Iceland, Norway and Switzerland, but if they are in the Single Market then that means they are bound by EU rules even though they have no say in the making of those rules.
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Post by Furby »

Someone did decide didn't they whoever was negotiating in the Boris government. Theresa had decided answer will be UK stays sort of in the EU and border will be along Ukraine and the Mediterranean. Then that wasn't ok so Boris government sort of decided border would have to be on the island of Ireland but then remembered good Friday agreement says no way. And border on Irish sea was a compromise. So unless good Friday agreement can be changed the border has to be on the Irish sea unless Ireland joins UK or UK joins EU. They can pretend Green lanes blah but there's still a border somewhere.

Housing ( Theresa no 3) has had a new law. A boy in Rochdale died of mould in his council house which has moved housing up the list again. The idea to solve it is that housing managers will need qualifications but this won't make money for improving houses or improve the lifestyles of tenants will it. Much of damp is caused by people cooking washing and breathing and not spending enough on opening windows putting heating on running dehumidifiers. With energy bills as they are people are even less likely to prevent damp so unless there's a fund to pay social housing energy bills what housing managers can do is limited. Even if they pay to improve ventilation people will block it to stop draughts and if they pay to provide heating and dehumidifiers people won't be able to pay the energy bills to run them. They can subsidise social housing energy bills I suppose but they already get massively subsidised rents as it is and will cause resentment especially as social houses are only given to people who have already caused big problems in some way these days it's not a route open to the average "just about managing" person who now can't manage private rents.
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Post by eccles »

It looks like the NIP has just about lurched over the line. There's the so-called "Stormont brake" which looks like any overreach by the EU can be stopped by Stormont backed by a UK veto. However Ursula insists that the ECJ has the final say "on single market issues". (sticking point?). The main area is the use of green and red lanes where goods destined for the province go straight through the green lane and the rest goes through the red lane where it may be inspected. Sunak says that for all intents and purposes there is now no longer “any sense of border in the Irish sea”.

So why couldn't this be done on the land border? It's just bloody minded politics by the EU.
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