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Not to belabor an annoying point, but when did our two benighted governments purchase vast quantities of tamiflu?
Here's an independent lab report FROM JANUARY:
The "H274Y" they're going on about just pinpoints the one and only mutation needed for Influenza virus to be completely resistant to Tamiflu:

H1N1 Tamiflu Resistance In England Approaches 100%
Recombinomics Commentary 17:46
January 7, 2009

Forty influenza A (H1) specimens have been tested for anti-viral drug resistance since week 40/08, 39 of these were resistant to oseltamivir.

The above comments from the week 1 report from the UK provide additional evidence that H274Y is fixed in H1N1.  The sole sensitive isolate was reported in the first 10 isolates tested.  Since those initial tests, all 30 samples have had H274Y.  This pattern is similar to reports of H274Y levels in the United States where 72/73 isolates have H274Y.  The sole sensitive isolate was among the first 2 tested, so all 71 tested since the initial report have had H274Y.  Similarly, the small number of H1N1 isolates tested in Scotland, Norway, Sweden, and Israel have H274Y, as do all 19 reported results in Canada.  The recent WHO report on initial results for the northern hemisphere indicated that 13/14 isolates from Japan had H274Y and sequence analysis of the three isolates showed that they matched the dominant sequence in the United States.

These initial data fro this season support the fixing of H274Y in H1N1 in circulation in the northern hemisphere. Although data has not been widely disseminated for Russia and China, two countries with high frequencies of H1N1, the results released these far from North America, Europe, and Japan in Asia support H274Y levels approaching 100%.


Recombinomics Paper at "Nature Precedings"


http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01070904/H274Y_UK_100.html


Really folks! Do NOT take tamiflu. You're just testing how strong your liver, heart and pancreas are against a potentially toxic insult.
As for as when is concerned they have been boasting here about their foresight in getting Tamiflu stocks in ages ago. Perhaps a year or two.

Asy, I'm glad you're saying this about it since it makes me feel more confident in rejecting it. It sounds worse than most people get the actual flu for very little or no gain.
It is not just the governments either.

Large organisations have purchased Tamiflu privately on behalf of all their employees. This is as an employee benefit so staff don't have to queue for drugs when they need them.

The ones I have seen have an expiry date of Oct 2010. Is it possible to tell from that how old they are?
"The ones I have seen have an expiry date of Oct 2010. Is it possible to tell from that how old they are?"

Well, the drug has a "five year" shelf life, so it could have been sitting around for a long time. And since they find the drug intact in reservoirs, it actually may not expire at all. I imagine the lawyers decided on the expiration date.

Here's a July interview with Roche in the NY Times. The representative is promising to make plenty of Tamiflu available for the swine flu epidemic. He isn't saying "don't bother, the virus is now resistant to the drug."

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/business/24roche.html?_r=1
(BrownFurby @ 27 July 2009,8:53am)
This is as an employee benefit so staff don't have to queue for drugs when they need them.

:rofl expect a letter from the Department of Revenue and Customs then... that is a "benefit in kind" and therefore taxable :D

Ron
Asy, would you care to comment on the difference between seasonal H1N1 and swine origin H1N1? The article seems to be referring to the seasonal variety.

Ron
Good question, Ron.

The molecular virologists in this report are being scientifically accurate. They are not dealing with "swine flu" H1N1 [which a veterinarian would have isolated from a pig], but rather, they are handling specimens of human influenza viral strain H1N1, isolated from patients with influenza symptoms. "Seasonal" refers to the fact that there was an ongoing increase in the incidence of cases of influenza at a certain time of the year, which is typical of influenza outbreaks.

I understand that the pork meat industry has been urging "correct designation" of human influenza strains. They had been experiencing a decrease in the buying of pork, because of the mistaken impression a consumer could catch swine flu from eating pork.

But I suspect such considerations were very far from these molecular virologists' consideration when they reported their findings.
Thanks Asy,

An alternative slant on the resistance of H1N1 to Tamiflu is provided here where the speaker seems to be implying that H1N1 resistance to Tamiflu is sporadic and not a problem :)

What is certain is that lots of things about H1N1 are uncertain - I am reasonably fit and healthy; providing it doesn't mutate into something like the "Spanish flu" pandemic I should be OK without Tamiflu

I have had 'flu before, didn't like it but it is survivable, if rather unpleasant, and adding insult to injury seems like a bit of a silly proposition to me. A specific H1N1 vaccine on the other hand I may just be tempted to suffer!

Ron
Can definitely see your point about uncertainty, FO Ron.

The strain that they call 'sporadically resistant' is the Mexican isolate. The WHO is generating a bundle of confusion by being sensitive to the pork industry and the Mexican tourist industry, calling this the P-H1N1.

Anyway, it is not the prevalent strain in the UK or USA. And I'm guessing, since they are still talking about keeping the immunizations for P-H1N1 separate, versus combining that strain with the upcoming jab, that the prediction whether it will become a prevalent strain is still either unsure or negative.

And this is not taking into account [though surely the bench scientists must be bracing for it] the fact that the Influenza virus can mix and match genes [because its genetic information is segmented]. Place sensitive P-H1N1 and resistant H1N1 in the same environment, with a strong selective pressure of massive human ingestion of tamiflu, and a resistant P-H1N1 is a likely outcome.
Well well well well well..............

In today's Grauniad online

The government rejected advice from its expert advisers on swine flu, who said there was no need for the widespread use of Tamiflu and suggested that the public should simply be told to take paracetamol.

An independent panel set up by the Department of Health warned ministers that plans to make the stockpiled drug widely available could do more harm than good, by helping the flu virus to develop resistance to the drug.

But ministers pressed ahead with a policy of mass prescription, fearing the public would not tolerate being told that the millions of doses of Tamiflu held by the state could not be used during a pandemic, one of the committee members has told the Guardian.


Full story here:-

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/aug/16/swine-flu-tamiflu-helpline-paracetamol

Of course, we had it first from Asy.   Creature told Our Gran to stay away from Tamiflu.
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